Decred a year in review (Nov 21 — Feb 22)
It’s been a hell of a year! But really, you can’t tell the story of Decred in 2021 without revisiting the starting point of the cycle. In…
It’s been a hell of a year! But really, you can’t tell the story of Decred in 2021 without revisiting the starting point of the cycle. In real terms, the cycle lasted just short of fifteen months. From the lows of November 2020, £7, to the fragile current level of support.
It’s unclear if 2022 will see more blood in the street for Decred or if it will stabilise out in its new trading range. We’ll leave this for a future discussion, but now let’s look at the highs and lows of the last fifteen months.
Jan 1st 2021, price £30.07
Dec 31st 2021, price £51.79
Yearly profit — 72% increase or £21.72
Yearly low — £30.07
Yearly high — £180
Days in profit for 2021— 365 days
March, 2020 — Covid19 hits Europe and all markets started a downward trend. The demand for £ / $ was high because of the need to pay bills with reduced earnings during the first lockdown. During this time Decred traded at a low of £7. Governments started programs of stimulus across the world to inject money into the system. US passed a stimulus package of $2.2 trillion on 27th March 2020
July, 2020 — First lockdown restrictions reduced. And people started to return to work. Demand for fiat currency reduced in general as surplus money was now idle in the accounts of the working class.
July to Nov, 2020 — Decred continued to trade in its typical range and even falling to unexpected lows after the small summer rally.
Nov 4, 2020 — Decred pushed past £10 and out of it’s 2yr trading range
Since the beginning of 2019 Decred traded in the range £7 — £37
Ideal purchasing point before this break out — £7 to £18
Feb 8, 2021 — Decred passes previous all time high of £80 set in the last bull run, Jan 13, 2018, 3 years earlier. A massive 800% gains in 3 months.
April 16, 21 — Decred reached a new “All Time High” of £180 and the 6 month bull run came to an end. Incredible gains of 1700% in less than 6 months.
April 2021 to Jan 2022 — During this time Decred followed a rapid market correction line. Which initially looked like it would find support at the previous all time high of £80, as it tested it no less than 5 times, before falling below on the 6th attempt. The next logical support is the top of the previous trading range, which is £37. For over a year now all orders have been filled above this point and if this is sustained it shows that the project participation has grown to sustain this price. This market retracement has taken 10 months whilst the bull run lasted 4 months.
Feb, 2021 to Feb, 2022 — For the majority of this time, Decred and the crypto market in general has been in an overbought market position. Overbought is when a projects price is believed to be above its intrinsic or fair value. Overbought in this case describes the short-term movement in the price, and reflects the 10 month market retracement. This movement also helps us understand where the project is, in terms of its development and true real world current value.
I have a lot of confidence in the Decred project and I believe it will continue to grow long into the future. But if you are intending to invest in any project it’s important to remain grounded, realistic and have your expectations firmly in place.
The crypto market in general is overbought, over hyped and falsely marketed to the speculating individuals. The crypto market is likely to suffer a massive retracement in 2022. A lot of projects will not survive this!
Projects that are most in danger during this time are:
- Meme Coins
- NFT Projects
- DeFi Projects
- Web3 Internet Computer Projects
- and the droves of tokens built of Ethereum and other IOT (Internet of things) platforms
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Disclaimer — Please note the above research is not financial advice and you should always do your own due diligence before investing your money. Investments can go down as well as up and cryptocurrencies are typically volatile assets.
The views expressed in this article are that of the author and based on the authors own research and investigation. The author is happy to receive comments, feedback and suggested edits for this channel to help evolve the open nature of the discussion.