Bear market blues
Obligatory: this is not financial advice and I am not a financial advisor.
It’s been a couple of weeks and a whole lot of nothing has happened. There might be some hopium filled glimpses of hope though.
The DYX hasn’t done anything. Zzzz. There’s an argument that could be made that it’s pulled back within the range and is making a bearish backtest though.
The VIX is oscillating back down which is good. It’s basically a fear/greed index for the S&P. Up is bear, down is bull. Zoomed out though it’s possible that it’s just going to make a higher low though which is no bueno.
The S&P held the bounce from the anchored VWAP still. There’s really not a whole lot of action but there’s a small glimmer of hope. After the bounce back up a flag formation is being built. If that breaks up it could mean good things for tech stocks and crypto.
Not much to say. Just whales duking it out and everyone else getting thrashed back and forth. Don’t try to trade this unless you’re just DCA’ing, it’s just going to get lead around by equities.
Not going to talk about lower time frame charts cuz it’s just as bad as Bitcoins. I’d like to look at the macro indicators though.
First up is the 2 year moving average multiplier.
We can see we’re currently at what could be a potential prime area to DCA into, based on the previous bear market.
Second up is the Mayer Multiple
This is the Mayer Multiple indicator tweaked to use the same settings as Checkmate’s indicator. We can see we tapped the bottom most band which has proven as a very good area to buy at.
Confluence between the two
If we turn on both indicators we can find that there is strong confluence between the two. If you pair the 2yr MA Multiplier’s buy zones along with price action within the bottom most Mayer Multiple band you’ll find that you could’ve just stocked up hard in those areas and then waited out the bear market. Will this be the same? Only time will tell. Also, don’t be irresponsible with your money.
The markets still look terrible. Everyone has left. Sentiment somehow feels worse than 2018. Everyone thinks there will be one more terrible drop and there’s a decent chance that there might be. But remember, it’s crypto. This could turn around at the drop of a hat.